Sc. 01
Wobble Drop
Pick a stake and let the clay ball go. At each of the twelve rows of pegs it bounces left or right with exactly even odds, and the cup it lands in multiplies your stake.
The pegboard
Join
Choose a stake, then drop the ball.
Last drops
- None yet
How it pays
Each of the twelve rows is a fair coin toss: left or right, half and half. The cup number is simply how many times the ball went right, so the chance of each cup comes straight from the binomial distribution: the number of paths into that cup divided by the 4,096 possible paths. The path is drawn first, then the ball is animated along that exact route.
| Cup | Multiplier | Paths (of 4,096) | Chance | Back on a 10 stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50× | 1 | 0.024% | 500 |
| 2 | 12× | 12 | 0.293% | 120 |
| 3 | 4× | 66 | 1.611% | 40 |
| 4 | 1.6× | 220 | 5.371% | 16 |
| 5 | 1× | 495 | 12.085% | 10 (stake back, not a win) |
| 6 | 0.6× | 792 | 19.336% | 6 (a loss of 4) |
| 7 | 0.3× | 924 | 22.559% | 3 (a loss of 7) |
| 8 | 0.6× | 792 | 19.336% | 6 (a loss of 4) |
| 9 | 1× | 495 | 12.085% | 10 (stake back, not a win) |
| 10 | 1.6× | 220 | 5.371% | 16 |
| 11 | 4× | 66 | 1.611% | 40 |
| 12 | 12× | 12 | 0.293% | 120 |
| 13 | 50× | 1 | 0.024% | 500 |
Average return: 93.69%, calculated exactly, not simulated. Add up paths × multiplier for all thirteen cups and you get 3,837.6; divide by 4,096 and that is 0.936914 of every coin staked, on average, over a very long run. Any single drop can land anywhere.
A cup that pays less than 1× is a loss, even though some coins come back, and the 1× cups only hand your stake back. Only the cups at 1.6× and above count as a win.